I believe Milan will win here. This is the crucial match for them and the players are well aware of that fact. No doubt they will give the maximum on this match
. This is one of the reasons for my pick, the motivation factor. The home advantage is also favoring Milan. It is expecting the full San Siro and more then 80.000 home fans. They will be like 12th player.
Milan started the new season very bad, but it seems the things are improving now. Milan have two victories and one draw in the last three matches in Serie A. First they won 1:0 against Genoa, then played 2:2 with Palermo and finally won 5:1 against Chievo on Saturday. El Shaarawy is in good form, he scored on every of the mentioned three matches. Montolivo is also dangerous, he scored two goals on the last two matches. It seems the coach Alegri finally find the right form.
Malaga play very good in Champions League. They are on the top of the group C with maximal effect after the first 3 rounds. Even more, Malaga is the only team yet to concede a goal in this competition. The coach Manuel Pellegrini is doing an excellent job and the fans are satisfied. Nobody expects such good start as Malaga was in hard financial situation and lot of players left the team. Pellegrini bought some on-loan players like Onyewu, Roque Santa Cruz and Javier Saviola and he managed to build a respectable squad. They suffered only two defeats, from Atletico Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in domestic Primera. Still, the last defeat from Rayo came just three days ago. I expect a downtrend from Malaga. Nacho Monreal is still injured and won’t play here.
I think Milan is closer to the victory. The good form, the home advantage and the bigger experience in European competitions are the key reasons for my pick.